Purpose

This report integrates the principal findings presented on the July 2026 research platform and provides a common evidence base for the accompanying public discussion.

Data and methodology

The final analytical sample contains 824 usable cases. Final v4 weighting provides 779 valid weights calibrated to CYSTAT 2021 age, gender and current district of residence. The effective sample size is 418.7, with a Kish design effect of 1.86 and a design-adjusted precision benchmark of approximately ±4.8 percentage points. Fieldwork took place from 10 to 31 July 2026.

1. Substance: constitutional alternatives and the status quo

The dominant contextual finding is dissatisfaction with the present situation: 92.4% judge the status quo unfair. BBF is accepted or tolerated by 75.3%, compared with 70.3% for a unitary state, 59.1% for continuation of the status quo and 33.3% for a two-state solution. The coexistence of substantial tolerance for more than one arrangement cautions against interpreting public attitudes as a single mutually exclusive constitutional choice.

2. Knowledge of BBF

84.9% report at least some knowledge of what a bizonal, bicommunal federation is, and 54.4% say they know it quite or very well. These figures measure self-assessed knowledge rather than performance on an objective knowledge test.

3. Crans-Montana

Evaluation of the Crans-Montana convergences is more divided. Among respondents expressing a substantive fairness judgment, 43.5% judge the convergences fair and 56.5% unfair. Separately, 29.1% of respondents answering the item select “Don’t know”. The fair/unfair percentages and the “Don’t know” percentage therefore use different denominators.

4. Baseline hopes and concerns

Respondents’ baseline answers reveal a mixed set of material, mobility and institutional expectations. Prominent hopes include property return or compensation (36.8%), freedom of movement and settlement (36.3%) and employment opportunities for young people (23.1%); 39.0% select none of the proposed hopes. Prominent concerns include refugees not returning to their properties (52.1%), political deadlock or dysfunction (41.8%), more daily tensions (28.1%) and cost for citizens (19.4%). Multiple responses were possible.

5. Process

82.8% prefer an active negotiation route. Restarting from Crans-Montana is selected by 38.7%, citizens’ assemblies by 22.2%, staged or interim implementation by 21.9%, while 17.2% prefer not to restart negotiations.

6. Intercommunal relations

51.7% report no contact with Turkish Cypriots, 32.4% less-than-monthly contact and 15.9% monthly or more frequent contact; 8.3% report weekly or more frequent contact. Mean affective warmth is 57.5 on a 0–100 scale. 55.6% are above the neutral point, 18.3% at neutral and 26.1% below neutral. The weighted association between contact and warmth is r=.327. BBF acceptance or tolerance ranges from 70.3% among respondents reporting no contact to 87.4% among those reporting weekly-or-more contact. These relationships are correlational and should not be interpreted as causal effects.

Overall interpretation

Taken together, the findings describe a society that remains deeply dissatisfied with the present division but does not organise its preferences around a single constitutional option. Knowledge of BBF is widespread by self-report, while evaluation of the Crans-Montana negotiating record is more contested and includes a sizeable group unable to judge its fairness. The public shows substantial demand for renewed activity in the peace process, alongside concerns about functionality, property and implementation. Limited everyday intercommunal contact remains an important feature of the social context.

Ethics

The study received a favourable opinion from the Cyprus National Bioethics Committee (ΕΕΒΚ ΕΠ 2026.01.96).

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